Gurdwara Darbar Sahib Kartarpur: A possible target for India


After the recent attack on Indian CRPF convey in occupied Kashmir, Indian Government is under seviour pressure from Indian public specifically from the extremist Hindu groups to take revenge from Pakistan as they blame Pakistan for all the rebel movement in occupied Kashmir.
In current political scenario of India, it is almost certain that Indian Prime Minister will have to allow some sort of aggressive adventure, because in India political point scoring is based on anti-Pakistan narrative, the more you are against Pakistan, the more Hindu extremist will support you, and in this situation where elections are on the door, Narendra Modi have no choice but to do some military action against Pakistan.
Now as after Uri attack, India claimed to have carried out limited surgical strike against Mujahideen launch pads, in Azad Kashmir, claiming to have carried out another surgical strike, or actually do it will not calm down Indian extremists, as they are demanding for something more this time. PM Narendra Modi will have to do something extra to get victory in upcoming elections. Similarly Indian media is making strategies on talk shows on how to avenge this attack, I observed that nobody is talking about their Cold Start Doctrine.
Cold Start Doctrine is India’s military strategy to attack Pakistan and capture chunk of its strategically important territory in the shortest amount of time possible. Pakistan has developed its own strategy and weapons to counter this strategy, but that countermeasures are applicable only if India tries to capture a large area, in case India tries to apply Cold Start Doctrine in Limited capacity and capture border posts or small area inside Pakistan in a surprise attack, Pakistan will retaliate cannot escalate it to a full scale war (as it is not in interest of Pakistan or India).

Gurdwara Darbar Sahib Kartarpur
Gurdwara Darbar Sahib Kartarpur

In this situation India will more likely to capture area that has more symbolic value than strategic. One such place cab be Gurdwara Darbar Sahib Kartarpur which is of great interest for the large Sikh community living inside India, but current Pakistani Government under Imran Khan is using it as a diplomatic weapon against India which India has no countermeasure against diplomatically.
If India successfully captures Gurdwara Darbar Sahib Kartarpur (as it is just 4km away from Indian border and looking at the footage from construction work going on at Kartarpur Corridor, it doesn’t seems to be a heavily guarded area), the main advantages for Modi will be (1)It will calm down Indian war mongering extremists as it has huge symbolic value, (2) It is very close to Indian border so the clash will not be long, (3) He will get high percentage of Sikh communities support in upcoming elections.
(Remember all this is if and only if they got it, which is highly unlikely, but for the sake of upcoming elections, Modi will have to try something)

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